Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 23.410838 25.466146 27.680394 30.253594 33.174791 36.403443 40.263183
2026-02-08 20.115640 22.914973 26.136803 30.159796 35.106766 41.069597 48.923826
2026-02-15 17.744993 20.949353 24.834441 29.979017 36.750059 45.565557 58.281488
2026-02-22 15.963071 19.392373 23.729872 29.762990 38.184886 49.937977 68.411200
2026-03-01 14.631557 18.204812 22.889129 29.688709 39.693256 54.582003 80.014652
2026-03-08 13.554000 17.208595 22.148475 29.591503 41.072023 59.206077 92.781750
2026-03-15 12.987146 16.825907 22.177752 30.557797 44.145453 67.051788 113.560157
2026-03-22 12.150754 15.979290 21.441351 30.247392 45.090349 71.451812 129.270993
2026-03-29 11.498283 15.333413 20.924665 30.193637 46.417705 76.773253 148.929159
2026-04-05 11.009009 14.880913 20.646601 30.472732 48.341706 83.637146 175.200772
2026-04-12 10.472984 14.315138 20.137957 30.294989 49.380138 88.918230 200.067304
2026-04-19 9.997604 13.806126 19.672484 30.130547 50.402379 94.394622 228.581048
2026-04-26 9.574237 13.359793 19.288290 30.097435 51.745864 101.133186 266.276817
2026-05-03 9.162010 12.905527 18.857315 29.935781 52.812283 107.563459 308.375672
2026-05-10 8.776422 12.469748 18.424079 29.723247 53.740798 113.958689 356.620820
2026-05-17 8.420728 12.060652 18.005488 29.493298 54.595827 120.458747 412.788572
2026-05-24 8.118760 11.721174 17.681438 29.411808 55.778937 128.330113 486.575389
2026-05-31 7.837462 11.399617 17.365343 29.311846 56.903870 136.464535 575.440544
2026-06-07 7.734382 11.367683 17.557648 30.263202 60.785700 155.165500 777.619953
2026-06-14 7.456936 11.026007 17.167134 29.955952 61.405429 162.898533 915.949362
2026-06-21 7.233442 10.765145 16.907558 29.902416 62.695211 173.765109 1123.972489
2026-06-28 7.067683 10.595043 16.804312 30.177486 64.942281 189.605499 1469.666070
2026-07-05 6.854877 10.332717 16.511253 30.002023 65.892199 200.589942 1821.919871